A friend of mine has been greatly amused by a statement that ex Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made while attempting to describe intelligence efforts and analysis for the quagmire known as Iraq:

“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know”.

Coming from a man who is known for his Yogi Berra type statements this appears on the surface to be his normal way of saying much without saying anything. However if the following statement had been added I could argue profound wisdom. “There are unknown knowns. These are things we think we know but are actually unknowns”. This would be to admit that there are things we think we know based on either bad assumptions or faulty intelligence that turn out to be untrue. Kind of like the known WMD’s in Iraq that turned out to be total bullshit.

Think about the profoundness of realizing that some of the “facts” we assume are true could turn out to be false or at least grossly inaccurate. Of course we can’t go through life assuming that our “facts” are or could be, false. We would be constantly doubting and fretting over things that we shouldn’t because we could be wrong. This is what we call faith. Believing that what we know we know is indeed true.

The problem is of course there are WAY too many people out there with faith that their knowledge is complete and accurate . Being in Information Technology, I see this all the time. The user is convinced they know something based on incomplete knowledge or understanding and argue with a knowledgeable IT technician about some problem they are having with their computer.

And how about that genius you are working for. You know the one that never leaves you wondering as to how the fuck they got into their current position. I read an interesting article some years ago that I can’t reference but the synopsis is that some high level executives get to their position by being lucky rather than good. They are basically incompetent boobs that present themselves and knowing all. Because they don’t know that they don’t know, they are unafraid of making risky decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information. Because of timing or shear luck this decision turns out to be correct and they are labeled “visionary”, “gifted” or “owns a crystal ball”. Now if they are shrewd and understand they don’t really know, then they surround themselves with qualified and talented people and the next thing you know, they are CEO.

Then there are the ones that never realize they are incompetent as hell, they continue recklessly making hasty and risking decisions, some of which turn out to be wrong. They never make it to CEO but are kept around since they have been right sometimes. They are usually slick enough to baffle the big boss with bullshit. You know, just like the guy you work for. By the way ladies, I use the word guy as a genderless term. I find this more and more to be the case with departmental managers that are promoted because they have been there forever. Not that they are talented people who can come up with innovative process improvements, oh no its because they have done the same thing for years and appear to be competent. Get them outside their comfort zone they flounder, not knowing anything about managing people or coming up with new ideas. Rather than admit they don’t know they choose to fake it through misdirection, scapegoating or blaming others. It often takes years to sniff these bozos out.

I have been hampered over the years in my career as the devil’s advocate or as an obstructionist because I have raised valid points counter to the main stream thinking. I won’t say that I was right on every single one but a case in point involved our leaders in the Tennessee bureaucracy. I was an engineer on the ConnecTN project sponsored by then Governor Ned McWhorter. I was “on loan” to the task force as a representative of the TN Board of Regents. We were supposed to figure out a way to get Internet access to all 96 TN counties by a September of 1996. We started in March and I naturally doubted the success of such a far flung project in 6 months but the Governor said make it happen so we tried.

A colleague of mine had a wonderful idea to revamp and modify the existing TBR network which already had a presence in about 75% of the counties. We lobbied for this solution only to be shot down by the big dogs at OIT and BellSouth who had much to gain with the new system. They began to buy equipment based on ISDN which I did not support. Aside from the obvious logistical and time constraints, there was no decent project plans, the technology had scaling limitations, and it seemed that chaos reigned. At a meeting at the “Bat Building” (Bellsouth’s headquarters in Nashville) with representatives form OIT, TBR, UT, BellSouth, and the Governors office to discuss progress, I was asked by the Governors representative what I thought about the progress. I told her the truth and later found out that I had been kicked off the task force as being too negative. No skin off my nose, I went about my business but I will tell you that millions were spent and they finally did get it going,,,,, in Septemer of 2000.

The point is that these were supposed “experts”. The finest the State of TN could muster and yet they didn’t know what they didn’t know. Never mind that a highly qualified engineer and project manager had expressed doubts and pointed out obvious faults. No I’m not bitter here, this is long dead horse as far as I’m concerned but a good example of what I’m saying.

So for all you experts out there, make sure you look at all options and objections especially from someone who normally right. The worst case is that you examine their evidence and it turns out you were right. Worst case, he was right and you save your project before it collapses. By the way my definition of an expert is: ex = has been, spert = a drip under pressure. As we have seen in the last few years, truth is always relevant and rarely unbiased. Everyone has expertise and knowledge and just because you are a medical doctor does not mean you know everything about computers. I don’t know tell you how to treat a patient, don’t tell me how to setup a file share.

Listen and learn, have you ever learned anything while you were talking?

PEACE!
The Sage